Does the future have to be uncertain?


There are at least 8 different approaches, for example to forecasting population number.

  1. Suck it and see: don’t anticipate outcomes; live in the moment.
  2. Predict using normative model: assumes causation by binary events, e.g heads or tails with 10 coins give a bell-shaped range of outcomes with a mid-range value e.g. 5 heads being most probable.
  3. Predict using Poisson distribution: assumes complex chain of natural events, e.g Per annum deaths by horse-kick in the Russian cavalry. Outcomes are snapper fish shaped: a blunt nil nose, a fatly probable mid-section and a long tailing off of multiple events.
  4. Predict using rectangular distribution: roulette-like equiprobability; caused by random luck.
  5. Deterministic model: calculates what outcome and when.
  6. Prescriptive forecast: plumps for an outcome to reduce speculation and acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beware of governments bearing false forecasts.
  7. Intervention: someone controls occurrence of an outcome.
  8. Faith: relies on divine intervention.
    We are usually ready to believe in someone spruiking a good future.

My novel The Grass is Always Browner is political fiction thriller. It tells a story about Australia 250 years in the future.

www.martinknox.wordpress.com

About martinknox

Materially minimalist; gastronomically prefer food I cook; biologically an unattached male survivor; economically independent; sociologically a learner and teacher of science; psychologically selfaltruistic; anthropologically West Country English tenant farmer; religiously variable; ethically case by case; philosophically a sceptical Popperian.

Posted on November 28, 2018, in The Grass is Always Browner, Urban Development and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on Does the future have to be uncertain?.

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