Does the future have to be uncertain?
There are at least 8 different approaches, for example to forecasting population number.
- Suck it and see: don’t anticipate outcomes; live in the moment.
- Predict using normative model: assumes causation by binary events, e.g heads or tails with 10 coins give a bell-shaped range of outcomes with a mid-range value e.g. 5 heads being most probable.
- Predict using Poisson distribution: assumes complex chain of natural events, e.g Per annum deaths by horse-kick in the Russian cavalry. Outcomes are snapper fish shaped: a blunt nil nose, a fatly probable mid-section and a long tailing off of multiple events.
- Predict using rectangular distribution: roulette-like equiprobability; caused by random luck.
- Deterministic model: calculates what outcome and when.
- Prescriptive forecast: plumps for an outcome to reduce speculation and acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beware of governments bearing false forecasts.
- Intervention: someone controls occurrence of an outcome.
- Faith: relies on divine intervention.
We are usually ready to believe in someone spruiking a good future.
My novel The Grass is Always Browner is political fiction thriller. It tells a story about Australia 250 years in the future.
Posted on November 28, 2018, in The Grass is Always Browner, Urban Development and tagged books, development, energy, environment, Forecasting, innovation, lifestyle, Novel, political, science, Speculative fiction, The Grass is Always Browner. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on Does the future have to be uncertain?.
