TIME TO DISCOUNT COVID19
The focus of news about COVID19 has been on changes overnight, because long term success has seemed uncertain. If you don’t have a way of taking future uncertainty into account in present actions the situation could be worrying. The following ways of dealing with uncertainty are commonly used.
- Trust in God assumes divine intervention. I normally use one of the methods below.
- Hypothesising is guesswork made credible by academic qualifications.
- Forecasting is induction that looks for a pattern or trend in past data. An epidemiological model could help.
- Time discounting or net present value is for investors to compare alternatives of delaying expenditure and advancing recovery, to get a high return.
- Expected value analysis calculates the probability-weighted consequences of possible outturns.
- Cost benefit analysis to consider outcome alternatives.
- Flow or optimal experience is an existential psychological response with individual focussing on a personal goal, applying of skills and totally mentally engaging, becoming oblivious of passing time.
Using one of the above techniques could reduce your worries about COVID19.
Posted on March 30, 2020, in COVID-19 and tagged COVID-19, Evaluation, Finance, Forecasting, Management science, Planning, psychology, Risk, Strategy analysis, Uncertainty. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on TIME TO DISCOUNT COVID19.