COULD COVID19 EFFECT ON AGE AT DEATH BE SMALL IN AUSTRALIA?
I have been concerned, as an elderly Australian, that I could be at more risk from COVID19 than other age groups. If the data and analysis in the table I have prepared below is correct, any age effect relative to normal mortality is likely to be small.
| AGE | Deaths
Pre-Covid19 30 March 2018 |
Death rate
2018 |
WORLD
COVID-19 Fatality Ratefor 37578 cases March 30, 2020 % |
Death Rate
2020 World % |
| 0-9 | 1042 | 0.70 | 0 | 0 |
| 10-19 | 524 | 0.36 | 0.2 | 0.70 |
| 20-29 | 1310 | 0.89 | 0.2 | 0.70 |
| 30-39 | 2244 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.70 |
| 40-49 | 4186 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 50-59 | 9101 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 5 |
| 60-69 | 17459 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 13 |
| 70-79 | 30296 | 20.6 | 8.0 | 28 |
| 80+ | 81196 | 55.1 | 14.8 | 51 |
| All ages | 147358 | 100 | 28.7 | 100 |
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
ABShttp://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?datasetcode=deaths_agespecific_occurenceyear
Deaths in Australia, as in other developed countries, are normally higher among older people. The increase in the number of deaths with COVID19 is not available.
The data indicates that the ages of people worldwide who died from COVID19 were similar to the ages Australians died at in 2018. If world mortality rates occur here, COVID19 would hit older Australians in proportion similar to other ways of dying.
55% of deaths are normally Australians over 80 and this number decreases to 51% for those who die from COVID19 worldwide. However, the proportion of 70-79 years old Australians who would die from COVID19 would increased to 28% from 20.6% worldwide. Australia would have proportionally fewer deaths over 80 than in 2018, but more at 70-79 and 60-69 with fewer 59 and under.
http://www.martinknox.wordpress.com
Posted on March 31, 2020, in COVID-19 and tagged Age, COVID-19, COVID19, Death rates, Fatality, longevity, Mortality. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on COULD COVID19 EFFECT ON AGE AT DEATH BE SMALL IN AUSTRALIA?.
