Energy from fossil fuels, nuclear, hydro and renewables, is released eventually into the Earth environment. If I divide it by heat capacities of the oceans and atmosphere, I can calculate the increase in annual temperature that would result. 

Dividing World primary energy consumption of 5.57 E20 joules per annum, by heat capacities of Earth’s water 6.13 E21 joules per ^oC plus Earth’s air 5.13 E21 joules per ^oC with E21 = 10²¹ calculates 0.49 E-1 ^oC per annum = 0.049^oC per annum.

This temperature rise is similar to the IPCC target of 1.5^oC over 30 years i.e. 0.050 ^oC per annum.

CONCLUSION: TODAY’S ENERGY CONSUMPTION EQUALS THE RATE OF WARMING TARGETED. 

Three assumptions have been made.

1. Primary energy does not disappear after consumption. My preliminary estimate of energy residence time (amount stored energy/energy input rate) indicates heat could last a year on Earth, on average, before radiating away. The annualised anthropomorphic heating effect, calculated above is higher than the IPCC’s estimated warming rate of 0.6^oC total over the last 130 years.

2. Earth is also heated from the interior, by bushfires, volcanoes and biochemical reactions. These would cause even more warming. 

3. Anthropomorphic warming occurs within diurnal and annual cycles of solar radiation, absorption and re-radiation from Earth. Radiant energy quantities input and output are large but approximately equal, relatively constant, partly self-cancelling and consistent with thermodynamic equilibrium. Enhanced absorption of radiation has been attributed to trace gases, with the amount of warming a priori. By Occam’s Razor, a greenhouse effect is not needed to explain warming when it is anthropogenic.

Human release of heat has been steadily increasing and it may not be a coincidence that the amount is about the same as the global temperature rise targeted by the IPCC. To achieve the target, reduction in primary energy consumption should be considered.

My novel Animal Farm 2 has climate science ideas within a new paradigm. 

Review: martinknox.com