NEW CLIMATE SCIENCE PARADIGM
Why Blame Carbon Dioxide?
Can there be evidence that carbon dioxide causes global warming? We can see that there is less arctic ice and shrinking of glaciers but the explanation could conceivably be that snowfall in their catchments has reduced. Even if there is warming, attributing these effects to it cannot be tested because causality is invisible and cannot be identified with certainty. Attributing the effect to carbon dioxide cannot be observed or tested directly. It’s too important to guess.
Scientists often establish causality by testing with a physical model. If there warming was observed in many tests and few results were without warming, nor many with cooling, then by the principle of induction the warming could be associated with carbon dioxide, under those conditions. No physical model can be large enough to approximate the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Models could possibly corroborate that carbon dioxide does cause warming (I haven’t heard of any such tests). Even so, models could add their logic to the theory but can never verify it absolutely.
People who use the reduced ice effects as evidence can be deceived by an a priori result, because melting was assumed to cause the reduction in ice observed, a circular argument and false.
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not a smoking gun. Warming of the oceans is causing them to release some of their dissolved store of carbon dioxide. Warming has caused the carbon dioxide increase, not vice versa.
Attributing the cause of ice reduction to carbon dioxide with reasonable confidence requires that possible alternative causes are eliminated. The effect on ice of co-products of fossil fuel combustion, heat and water vapour, could also be to reduce it. Alternatively, Earth warming by the Sun has variable solar processes and Earth orbits that could cause warming and melting.
Other science theories, such as gravity, evolution and relativity, also have invisible causality and were adopted before their science was fully understood. Philosophies of science were modified to accommodate these theories. Carbon dioxide’s culpability could be accepted without evidence, provided it is logical, if it is not contradicted and if other explanations are not credible.
I have mentioned several alternative theories of ice reduction. William of Occam wanted preference to be given to the simplest theory. Thermal emissions explain warming more simply than does carbon dioxide. The significance of carbon dioxide needs to be reconsidered.
My coming novel Animal Farm 2 is a sequel to George Orwell’s Animal Farm and satirizes totalitarianism, animal liberation and climate change. martinknox.com
PROPOSAL TO DEMONSTRATE GREENHOUSE WARMING ￼
To demonstrate that CO2 warms the atmosphere,’ said Stanley, ‘we could empty two identical grain silos and fill one with air and the other with pure CO2 gas piped in from the vodka plant. Then we would put an infrared heater inside each.’
‘Why use infrared heaters?’ asked Pamela his partner.
‘Because infrared radiation from the Sun passes through the atmosphere,’ said Norman. ‘Some is absorbed and the rest warms the Earth’s surfaces or is reradiated.’
‘Would the infrared heat the air?’
‘Indirectly. The metal wall of the silo will warm up and heat the gases by convection and circulation, like the atmosphere.’
‘The metal wall wouldn’t absorb and radiate like the ocean and land, would it?’
‘It could be similar.’
‘How long would you let the two silos heat up for?’
‘Maybe a week. Then we could compare the temperatures reached.’
‘Why did you go for pure CO2? Air has only 0.045%?’ said Pamela.
‘I figured it would be easiest to see any difference with 100% CO2 and then scale the results proportionally down to 0.045%. CO2 would heat up more because it has 20% lower specific heat capacity.’
‘So what would this demonstrate?’
‘It could demonstrate Earth’s atmosphere containing more carbon dioxide would heat up more.’
‘Yes. It’s a fair test.’
Extracted from Animal Farm 2, by Martin Knox, available from Amazon.
WATER WARMING THE EARTH
Have you noticed that when you go outdoors at night, if there are clouds, it is warmer than when the sky is clear? Clouds and rain are part of heat and air circulation at the Earth’s surface, like a saucepan heated from below, with water evaporating and condensing on the lid, by losing heat into space. The water cycle keeps Earth warm.
Global warming could be caused by moisture and clouds in the atmosphere increasing with time.
The change in the Earth-Sun heat transfer balance has been attributed to the Earth trapping more incoming radiation during daytime. If this is so, would it not reradiate it at night time, as part of the equilibrium? In any case, heat absorbed at the surface is said to be transferred from 0.045% of carbon dioxide gas to warm up 99.96% of the atmosphere by a supposed heat transfer process. The supposed role of carbon dioxide puzzles me.
The anthropomorphic heat gain could plausibly be held back by the insulating effect of moisture and clouds above water storages, combustion exhausts, agricultural evaporation, irrigation and transpiration from crop plants. The numbers in the diagram relate water quantities. The increase could be a small change to Earth’s energy input and output, but enough to be a significant cause of global warming. Other warming could be by anthropomorphic heat pollution. Reducing human water usage, evaporation from dams and combustion of hydrogen-containing fuels could perhaps lower the small heat gain of climate change.
My blog posts on climate change are at martinknox.com
THERMAL POLLUTION CAUSES GLOBAL WARMING
When fossil fuels are combusted, all the heat produced, used and wasted, ends up in the oceans, lakes, atmosphere and space. You may have noticed that weather temperatures near cities are warmer, because cities are ‘heat sinks’ of human activity, where waste heat is disposed of into the atmosphere.
The heat wasted into the air by cities, agriculture, livestock, transport and by evaporation from water storages is large. If you live near a thermal power station, where river, lake or ocean water is used for cooling, you may have noticed the water is warmed up and can even cause fog at night. Alternatively, heat could be wasted from a cooling tower.
You may have been at an airport and felt warm ‘jet wash’, exhaust gases from a plane manoeuvring.
There is evidence that human heat pollution is significant. By comparison with solar radiation received by Earth, the amount of thermal pollution is lower when the Sun is high, but at night thermal pollution contributes significantly to the daily heat balance, enough to cause global warming. I calculate that human-generated heat stays on Earth with an average residence time of 140 years.
Substitution of solar, wind and hydro for fossil fuel combustion would not reduce thermal pollution and could increase it, if electrical output efficiency is lower and more heat is wasted and replaced from the Sun.
The other theory, that global warming could be caused by heat entrapment by a tiny amount of carbon dioxide gas, is disputed in the literature, unnecessarily complex and without evidence. To reduce global warming, energy consumption must be reduced.
More information is in my book Animal Farm 2, on Amazon.