Animal Farm 2 is a sequel and update on George Orwell’s novel Animal farm (1945).
The story is about totalitarianism, animal liberation and climate change.
The animals have difficulty imagining the amount of global temperature increase and the alternative causes possible. They have most evidence of global warming coming from all kinds of heat emission, including entropy increase from domestic and transport consumption of energy, amid balanced daily solar cycling. An enhanced greenhouse effect is an unnecessary complication, that promotes renewable energy. To reduce environment warming, it is logical to reduce consumption of energy of all kinds.
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Earth’s heat balance is certainly complex. Combustion emits carbon dioxide, water vapour and heat. Carbon dioxide has received most attention but heat probably causes most global warming. According to the greenhouse gases theory global warming is caused by carbon dioxide, but increased heat from Earth sources could cause warming, with solar radiation absorption and emission continuing as in the past.
Heat energy to warm Earth’s land, oceans and atmosphere, is emitted by respiration of living things, by combustion of vegetation and fossil fuels, by capture of renewable energy replenished by the Sun and by geothermal processes. Some heat produced is radiated into space, but my calculations indicate the remainder is sufficient to add to normal solar warming and cooling, causing warming noticeable near city heat sources.
Warming would not in the least be reduced by substituting for fossil fuels with solar, wind or hydro energy supplies because they are replenished from the Sun. Warming in the environment is caused by spent inefficient energy consumed. To reduce heat emissions enough to stop warming could require cutting energy consumption and waste to a low level, until entropy increase is prevented by energy removal in endothermic reactions, such as photosynthesis, which absorbs heat with light. Deindustrialisation may be necessary. The theory of warming by greenhouse gases is considered in my previous post here Greenhouse Gases Not To Blame.
My satirical book Animal Farm 2 explains paradigm-shifted climate science.
Animal Farm 2 is a fiction novel that sequels and updates George Orwell’s Animal Farm. The animals’ commune continues under totalitarian pig rule. The animals are employed to mine coal discovered on the farm for a power station. The animals learn climate science when global warming is associated with pollution and they discover that heat and water emissions from all sources are more culpable than carbon dioxide from their coal.
Guided by logic and science they plan to liberate their farm from pig and human control. The story is a satire that satirizes politics and some theories of climate science.
Like understanding in other fields of science, climate has had phases, punctuated by crises of individual scientists’ faith, with breakdown and replacement, referred to as ‘paradigm shifts’*.
PARADIGM 1 Until 1945
Our understanding of climate was of regular procession of the seasons. Extreme events were divinely caused. Conditions and climates would continue favourably by prayer, diligent duty and sacrifice.
PARADIGM 2 1946 – 1987
With scientific understanding, the behaviour of the atmosphere, oceans and earth became predictable causes of weather but variations in climate statistics were understood only superficially. Another ice age was possible. Weather forecasts were uncertain within days and speculative further ahead. Energy supply was managed by laissez-faire economic supply and demand. Scientific theories were tested by experiment. There was no possibility of changing climates, although there were experiments to increase rainfall by cloud seeding.
PARADIGM 3 1988 – ?
Pollutant gases seemed linked to climate after a ‘hole’ in the ozone layer was claimed to have been repaired by limiting accidental release of chlorofluorocarbons, having a catalytic effect on ozone. When there seemed to be polar ice melting, glacier retreat and higher sea levels, global warming was attributed to greenhouse gases, especially by the increase in carbon dioxide from fossil fuels combustion. When science theories could not be tested, credible assertion and modelling that explained adjusted data was accepted. Energy supply became controlled by governments. Worldwide restructuring of energy supply without fossil fuels turned to renewable energy, especially from solar and wind. Reduction of energy consumption was not considered.
PARADIGM 4 2021 – ?
The link between global warming and fossil fuel combustion is realized tenuous. Increasing carbon dioxide in air has other possible explanations and in any case its effect is non-catalytic, benign and its warming effect is unsubstantiated. Warming by other combustion products, heat and water vapour, can no longer be ignored. Carbon dioxide is recognised to be benign. Renewable energy is realised to cause warming equal to or greater than fossil fuels. To prevent global warming, energy use should be scaled back if possible in industry and all other human activities, especially in high energy-using countries such as Australia; Canada; USA; Europe.
*The term ‘paradigm shift’ is explained in Godfrey-Smith, Theory and Realist, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, 2003. My coming novel ‘Animal Farm 2’ explains these views https://martinknox.com