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Let’s have petrol of our own.

African children queue for food
Exploration drilling for oil offshore in the Great Australian Bight has been opposed by activists. Australia imports 80% of its crude oil from SE Asia (49%), Africa (24%), Middle East (17%) and others (10%). Import of oil from developing countries depletes their resources and can destabilise government and development. The fiction novel $hort of Love by Martin Knox illustrates horrific ethical dilemmas of importing oil from a developing country suffering famine. After you read this story, you are likely to reduce your petrol consumption or alternatively want drilling in The Bight.
Reviews of the book are here:

Climate entitlement falsely alarmed

Greta Thunberg’s entitlement alarmed by development.

As growing populations of Chinese, Indians and Indonesians enjoy their new prosperity brought by development of affordable fossil-fuel electricity, climate alarmists with unfalsifiable theories of climate change forecast catastrophe unless energy alternatives are adopted that will cripple economies committed to growth. World leaders wisely discounting unwarranted alarmism must acknowledge that population growth and economic growth are unsustainable and campaign for efficient use of remaining resources guided by economic markets rather than by fake science, hysteria or appeals to privilege like Thunberg’s.



Front Cover jpeg RGB.jpg

A self-centred man’s love relationship goes out of control due to a satirical misconception.

Tom Archer falls for university student Vicki Hillstone, who tricks him to take a lie detector test and finds out he is bedding town girl Barbara. Vicki is distracting Tom from his studies so he reduces his overall vulnerability to love. He ‘shorts’ Vicki for later but he is devastated when she appears to make out with his best friend Richard.

The women counteract Tom’s love commodity investment with tragic consequences. He follows a glittering career in the petroleum industry while trying to take up with Vicki. After the deception of their beginning, can he and Vicki ever become a couple?

Review by Vesna Mcmaster, author and editor.

‘In ‘Short of Love’, Knox has taken the picaresque genre by the cerebrum, presenting a narrative alternately amusing, shocking, and deeply familiar by turns. The unrelenting pace and clean style combine within a paradoxical whole, both epic and microscopic simultaneously. Add to that an author/reader relationship that defies convention, and you have this curious and memorable work, which will present an entertaining challenge to the end.’



Does the future have to be uncertain?

There are at least 8 different approaches, for example to forecasting population number.

  1. Suck it and see: don’t anticipate outcomes; live in the moment.
  2. Predict using normative model: assumes causation by binary events, e.g heads or tails with 10 coins give a bell-shaped range of outcomes with a mid-range value e.g. 5 heads being most probable.
  3. Predict using Poisson distribution: assumes complex chain of natural events, e.g Per annum deaths by horse-kick in the Russian cavalry. Outcomes are snapper fish shaped: a blunt nil nose, a fatly probable mid-section and a long tailing off of multiple events.
  4. Predict using rectangular distribution: roulette-like equiprobability; caused by random luck.
  5. Deterministic model: calculates what outcome and when.
  6. Prescriptive forecast: plumps for an outcome to reduce speculation and acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beware of governments bearing false forecasts.
  7. Intervention: someone controls occurrence of an outcome.
  8. Faith: relies on divine intervention.
    We are usually ready to believe in someone spruiking a good future.

My novel The Grass is Always Browner is political fiction thriller. It tells a story about Australia 250 years in the future.

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