COVID-19 FOR HOW LONG IS FAIR?
Posted by martinknox
Australia’s coronavirus measures may have caused slowdown in confirmed cases reported daily, from 410 to about 250 on March 30.
A study published in Med J Aust, March 26 2020, by Meares and Jones, assumes that Australia has around 2200 ICU beds. The study calculates that this capacity would be exceeded by a total of around 22000 cases, although 44,580 cases could possibly be coped with.
I would like to know how full Australia’s ICU beds are presently and the prospect of filling them under the current restrictions and slowdown?
I have heard a rumour 60-80% of Australians will have been infected.before COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. At the current rate of 250 cases reported per day, assuming that only 10% of infections would be reported, I calculate 60% of 25 million infections would take 16 years to be reported.
An epidemic lasting 16 years, under current social and economic restrictions, could imperil Australian society. Previous world epidemics have run their courses within a few years, with more deaths.
There has been success in flattening demand for scarce beds, but is holding the Australian population in virtual quarantine for 16 years affordable?
In 2018, before COVID-19, 55% of Australians who died were 80+. Lockdown won’t prolong lives indefinitely and the benefit to elderly people could be at a cost to the welfare of younger people that is unfair.
My calculations could be wrong and I have only been able to pose questions. Explanations by those who decide and administer these policies is required.
Posted in COVID-19
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Tags: Australia, COVID-19, elderly, epidemic duration, epidemiology, hospital beds, population welfare, social restrictions