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COVID 19 see Category Archives most recent at top
- Vaccination treatment alternatives
- Lifestyle Recovery reset after pandemic
- Politics not the same online
- Build immunity and limit transmission
- How much Covid risk should we cover?
- Covid infection not just a germ
- Are you stoical about restrictions?
- Governing pandemic by optimism
- Balancing pandemic control
- How will repaying covid-19 affect us?
- Who will pay the bill for Covid-19?
- Is infection like a crime
- Pandemic dynamics not understood
- Maturity could be reduced
- Opinion: Liberty could be reduced
- Deaths by any other name
- Covid 19 Deaths relative to fatalities
- Disease thwarted
- Private and public risks of Covid-19
- Age-restriction of interaction for well-being
- Immunity without vaccines, victims or vectors?
- Helpless patients more likely to die
- Germ wars: immune system strikes back
- Elderly suicide bombers
- Herd immunity at what cost?
- Surveyed the wrong sample.
- Covid-19 analogy of road deaths
- Three Covid-19 treatments
- Covid-19 affects ages differently
- Covid-19 by any other name
- Quarantine was effective in 1918
- Covid-19 for how long is fair?
- Covid-19 causing a paradigm shift online
- Could Covid-19 effect on age at death be small in Australia?
- Time to discount Covid-19
- Loyalty versus Covid-19
- Can parents teach their kids in Covid-19 lockdown?
- Opposing Covid-19 with obedience
- Get used to social isolation
- Will social distancing change us?
PANDEMIC DYNAMICS NOT UNDERSTOOD
The coronavirus organism is keeping humans guessing at the microscopic, medical treatment and political levels. Could its behaviour be complex, are situations diverse, or is detection and recording of its presence variable, local, partial and haphazard? Is it possible that behaviour is random, unpredictable, unrepeated, invisible and baffling scientists?
Manifestation could be determined by a stochastic algorithm of processes that is constantly changing and beyond analysis. No-one has the full picture. Is it asking too much that scientists should collaborate? After 6 months, pandemic control is still uncertain, without any definite prospect of a vaccine or any other treatment.
This was once the situation with AIDS, so there is hope.
No-one seems to be interpreting a global data set with authority beyond generic cautionary advice at an unprecedented large scale of economic impact, with catastrophic impacts. Normal scientific caution in establishing causes is being widely interpreted as epistemological deficiency. The causality vacuum is permitting growth of political authority and totalitarian rule.
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COVID-19 BY ANY OTHER NAME
92% of World COVID-19 deaths to March 30, 2020 were over 60. More than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and tumor. People with basic diseases, as long as they have pneumonia, were clinically a high risk factor, whether or not coronavirus was present.
‘It is not the case that fatality rate of pneumonia is high because of the infection with the new coronavirus,’ explained the National Health Commission, China.
Should this be interpreted that when both pneumonia and COVID-19 were present at a death, the virus was ascribed. How many COVID-19 deaths might otherwise have been pneumonia?
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COVID-19 FOR HOW LONG IS FAIR?
Australia’s coronavirus measures may have caused slowdown in confirmed cases reported daily, from 410 to about 250 on March 30.
A study published in Med J Aust, March 26 2020, by Meares and Jones, assumes that Australia has around 2200 ICU beds. The study calculates that this capacity would be exceeded by a total of around 22000 cases, although 44,580 cases could possibly be coped with.
I would like to know how full Australia’s ICU beds are presently and the prospect of filling them under the current restrictions and slowdown?
I have heard a rumour 60-80% of Australians will have been infected.before COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. At the current rate of 250 cases reported per day, assuming that only 10% of infections would be reported, I calculate 60% of 25 million infections would take 16 years to be reported.
An epidemic lasting 16 years, under current social and economic restrictions, could imperil Australian society. Previous world epidemics have run their courses within a few years, with more deaths.
There has been success in flattening demand for scarce beds, but is holding the Australian population in virtual quarantine for 16 years affordable?
In 2018, before COVID-19, 55% of Australians who died were 80+. Lockdown won’t prolong lives indefinitely and the benefit to elderly people could be at a cost to the welfare of younger people that is unfair.
My calculations could be wrong and I have only been able to pose questions. Explanations by those who decide and administer these policies is required.
