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HOW DO WE EVALUATE ACTION ON CLIMATE EFFECTS?

 

  1. Collect unbiased observations of temperature, sea level and effects of extreme events over many years.
  2. Analyse climate data impartially to detect trends and all potential causes.
  3. Identify worst consequences of effects for people, fauna and flora.
  4. Consider most likely cause(s) of worst effects.
  5. Select verified mitigating and preventative actions.
  6. Obtain agreements and funding.

ALTERNATIVE METHOD

Skip steps 1-6, vilify benign CO2 emissions, exhaust supplies CH4, sabotage Australia’s coal industry, deplete scarce World oil, exact payments from electricity users, install renewable energy technologies that cause more warming than coal, prevent public debate, pretend that government is in control.

How lucky is crime investigation?

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Many crime fiction stories are solved by luck, by coincidence, by interrogation and by confession. These are not often available in investigation of real crimes and the CI has to rely on search for evidence and analysis. This can be haphazard or systematic and efficient. In the political crime fiction novel Presumed Dead, the CI follows an Euler Walk to reconstruct the crime efficiently. The method could be widely used, even by other crime fiction writers.
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Are causes effects?

Chain

An event that occurs earlier can be considered to cause one that is later, it there is time. Science may be able to explain how one event can cause another. Usually, there are several possible causes and several possible effects. Causation is sometimes attributed to an earlier event that is merely associated: by accident, by coincidence, in parallel or by deception.The earliest or original cause may be called the ‘motive’.

Teleology is the philosophy of explanation of phenomena by the purpose they serve rather than by postulated causes. Thus causes may be considered in simultaneity with effects.

In the crime fiction novel Presumed Dead, causes and effects are deduced and chains of hypotheses reconstructed.

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Induction and deduction

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In deductive reasoning, if something is true of a class of things in general, it is also true for all members of that class. Reasoning proceeds from the general to the particular with certainty.

In inductive inference, we go from the specific to the general. We make many observations, discern a pattern, make a generalization, and infer an explanation or a theory. Reasoning proceeds from the particular to the general with uncertainty.

In the crime fiction novel Presumed Dead, the investigation alternately employs induction speculatively and deduction conclusively.

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