A crime can be analysed by developing a theory as a chain of causative hypotheses, the strength of each link depending upon the rigour of the testing. The strength of the chain is no more than its weakest link. Links are not necessarily strengthened by evidence, which may direct, indirect or circumstantial. Hypotheses can explain evidence but must be able to be falsified and able to make predictions of something yet unobserved.
In the crime fiction novel Presumed Dead, the crime is systematically reconstructed:
Karl Popper (1902-1994) is widely regarded as one of the greatest philosophers of science.
A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it by refuting it. It is not possible to ‘prove’ an hypothesis or show that an hypothesis is ‘true’, only falsify it. The null hypothesis is that some estimate is due to chance vs the alternative hypothesis that there is some statistically significant effect.If this evidence exists, we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.
In the crime fiction novel Presumed Dead, the investigator reconstructs the crime with a chain of hypotheses. https://wp.me/P1z4yo-n