Blog Archives
KNOW IF GROWTH IS GOOD OR BAD?
Australia's GDP growth was 0.2 percentage points for the quarter ending September 3rd, 2019, bringing the annual pace of GDP growth to 1.2 per cent. It has been higher in the past and is almost at the zero growth rate favoured for a steady state economy. It is a half of the US rate of 2.3 percent for the 4th quarter in 2019. Australia's production is growing slowly. Are we to suppose there has been improvement in something else? Unlike Bhutan, Australia does not record happiness. If there has been an increase in happiness, or a decrease, we wouldn't know. Media reports of growth and its effects provide only a partial picture.. To appreciate what growth is occurring and how beneficial it is, I will switch my viewpoint to individual developments, the criteria for identifying winners and losers, and what they can expect. This is investigated in my paper DOES GROWTH BENEFIT SOME GROUPS AT AN EQUIVALENT COST TO OTHERS? For developments where this occurs, there are several possible philosophies of compensation. A conclusion is that development proposals should be audited for their attention to: markets; the public good; resource use efficiency; disadvantaged people; and conserving environments. Careful development will ensure that growth, although it may be slow, will be fair. My novel Presumed Dead is a crime fiction story that illustrates a government decision process for a casino development involving a sassy woman city councillor.
growth-benefits-and-costs-160819.docx
TIME TO DISCOUNT COVID19
The focus of news about COVID19 has been on changes overnight, because long term success has seemed uncertain. If you don’t have a way of taking future uncertainty into account in present actions the situation could be worrying. The following ways of dealing with uncertainty are commonly used.
- Trust in God assumes divine intervention. I normally use one of the methods below.
- Hypothesising is guesswork made credible by academic qualifications.
- Forecasting is induction that looks for a pattern or trend in past data. An epidemiological model could help.
- Time discounting or net present value is for investors to compare alternatives of delaying expenditure and advancing recovery, to get a high return.
- Expected value analysis calculates the probability-weighted consequences of possible outturns.
- Cost benefit analysis to consider outcome alternatives.
- Flow or optimal experience is an existential psychological response with individual focussing on a personal goal, applying of skills and totally mentally engaging, becoming oblivious of passing time.
Using one of the above techniques could reduce your worries about COVID19.
http://www.martinknox.wordpress.com
CITY HALL DEMOCRACY RENEWAL
When Brisbane voters elect a City Council on March 28th, Australia’s largest local government will be renewed for a 4 year term. What could go wrong?
Set in a fictional City Hall, Martin Knox has written a political crime thriller novel: ‘Presumed Dead’. There are page-turning politics in a hung council considering a megacasino. There is chilling corruption and imaginative scientific investigation. Will Dr Phillip Keane find missing independent councillor Jane Kenwood? What will happen in their relationship? Will she be able to change their political system?
See a Youtube video book trailer at this link:
RESTORING REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY
This novel story shows how political processes in Alexandra City, Southland, shape the urban environment and city living. They are not a pretty picture. Candidacy, campaigning, elections, debates, rhetoric, voting, partisan manoeuvring and development approvals are seldom transparent and not always fair. Corruption is suspected and Dr Phillip Keane, a forensic scientist conducts a meticulous reconstruction. Read how an independent woman politician is able to restore true democracy.
