Blog Archives

WHAT COULD A HUNG COUNCIL DO?

How unstable could local politics become when an elected council becomes hung?

If party politicians join independents on the cross-bench, would developments wanted by the public be more or less likely to be approved?

‘Presumed Dead’ is a novel by Martin Knox set in a fictional council chamber within the Westminster system. Corruption at the big end of town is suspected when Jane Kenwood, a feisty councillor, disappears.

http://www.martinknox.wordpress.com

PANDEMIC DYNAMICS NOT UNDERSTOOD

The coronavirus organism is keeping humans guessing at the microscopic, medical treatment and political levels. Could its behaviour be complex, are situations diverse, or is detection and recording of its presence variable, local, partial and haphazard? Is it possible that behaviour is random, unpredictable, unrepeated, invisible and baffling scientists?
Manifestation could be determined by a stochastic algorithm of processes that is constantly changing and beyond analysis. No-one has the full picture. Is it asking too much that scientists should collaborate? After 6 months, pandemic control is still uncertain, without any definite prospect of a vaccine or any other treatment.
This was once the situation with AIDS, so there is hope.
No-one seems to be interpreting a global data set with authority beyond generic cautionary advice at an unprecedented large scale of economic impact, with catastrophic impacts. Normal scientific caution in establishing causes is being widely interpreted as epistemological deficiency. The causality vacuum is permitting growth of political authority and totalitarian rule.
http://www.martinknox.wordpress.com/news

HERD IMMUNITY AT WHAT COST?

Herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.

The prospects for a vaccine are, according to New Scientist, 21 March 2020, p45, ‘. . . the fastest we have ever cranked out a vaccine in response to an outbreak was with Ebola – and that took five years . . .

The other way is to allow 50-80% of the population to become infected quickly so that survivors will be in an immune herd. The strategy has ethical objections that it practices eugenics, aiming to improve the genetic quality of a human population. Some consider it is more ethical and politically viable to suppress the pandemic with economic and social restrictions that wreck the economy.

An article in aljazeera asks: Which countries have allowed the elderly and the sick to die in numbers, as an alternative to widespread economic damage caused by more stringent suppression measures?

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/coronavirus-herd-immunity-eugenics-market-200414104531234.html

Countries have responded differently, as is evident from this table.

 

COUNTRY POPULATION AREA

km2

TOTAL CASES COVID-19

Total deaths

 

Deaths per

million km2

Deaths per million
Australia 25499884 7692024 6468 63 8.2 2.5
Canada 37742154 9984670 29929 1191 119 31
UK 67886011 242900 103093 13729 56500 202
USA 331002651 9372610 670598 1645 176 5.0
China 1439323776 9706961 82341 3342 344 2.3
Sweden 10099265 450295 12540 1333 2962 132
Denmark 5792202 43094 6879 321 7465 55.4
Netherlands 17134872 41850 29214 3315 79211 194
Norway 5421241 323802 6848 152 469 28

 

 

It remains to be seen if stringent suppression has merely delayed deaths until later, with more and longer lasting economic damage. A short sharp economic shock from epidemic virulence could possibly be less damaging overall, except for people who are without medical treatment. Countries that adopt a balance between medical and economic constraints may be best placed to countenance the uncertainties.

A possible philosophy is to keep hospital beds treating as many COVID-19 cases as possible.

Data: https://www.worldometers.info/ April 16th, 2020

http://www.martinknox.wordpress.com

DO YOU HAVE AN INDEPENDENT COUNCILLOR?

Independent candidates are listed below for Brisbane’s election of a new City Council on March 28th.

Great importance of independents in a fictitious City Hall political process is shown in my political crime fiction thriller ‘Presumed Dead’. After a crime involving a developer is solved, an independent councillor becomes mayor and the council adopts non-partisan processes,  preventing self-serving party control. The storyline is exciting with exciting topics of current public interest.

http://www.martinknox.wordpress.com

CANDIDATE

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