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PANDEMIC DYNAMICS NOT UNDERSTOOD
The coronavirus organism is keeping humans guessing at the microscopic, medical treatment and political levels. Could its behaviour be complex, are situations diverse, or is detection and recording of its presence variable, local, partial and haphazard? Is it possible that behaviour is random, unpredictable, unrepeated, invisible and baffling scientists?
Manifestation could be determined by a stochastic algorithm of processes that is constantly changing and beyond analysis. No-one has the full picture. Is it asking too much that scientists should collaborate? After 6 months, pandemic control is still uncertain, without any definite prospect of a vaccine or any other treatment.
This was once the situation with AIDS, so there is hope.
No-one seems to be interpreting a global data set with authority beyond generic cautionary advice at an unprecedented large scale of economic impact, with catastrophic impacts. Normal scientific caution in establishing causes is being widely interpreted as epistemological deficiency. The causality vacuum is permitting growth of political authority and totalitarian rule.
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TIME TO DISCOUNT COVID19
The focus of news about COVID19 has been on changes overnight, because long term success has seemed uncertain. If you don’t have a way of taking future uncertainty into account in present actions the situation could be worrying. The following ways of dealing with uncertainty are commonly used.
- Trust in God assumes divine intervention. I normally use one of the methods below.
- Hypothesising is guesswork made credible by academic qualifications.
- Forecasting is induction that looks for a pattern or trend in past data. An epidemiological model could help.
- Time discounting or net present value is for investors to compare alternatives of delaying expenditure and advancing recovery, to get a high return.
- Expected value analysis calculates the probability-weighted consequences of possible outturns.
- Cost benefit analysis to consider outcome alternatives.
- Flow or optimal experience is an existential psychological response with individual focussing on a personal goal, applying of skills and totally mentally engaging, becoming oblivious of passing time.
Using one of the above techniques could reduce your worries about COVID19.
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